Can Twitter predict the Oscars?

The biggest night in Hollywood is coming up in just a few days, and we're as excited as anyone — if not more so. The movies, the performances, the Red Carpet, the Twitter data...

What?

Yeah, that's right — we're excited about the data. There's nothing quite like flipping on the big show and curling up with your phone in one hand and Tweetdeck in the other — bring it on, baby!

This shouldn't come as a surprise, but Twitter has changed the way people interact with live events in some really surprising ways. Last year, there were 3.3 billion impressions of #Oscar tweets. And don't even get us started about Ellen's selfie. So being the social marketers and data analysts that we are, we started wondering: Can Twitter predict the results of the Oscars?

We took a crack at answering that question by looking at the Twitter conversations taking place around each of the best picture nominees and weighing four tiers of Twitter data:

  • Conversation volume: The number of tweets published including the name of each film. 
  • Sentiment: Tweets with positive language weighed against those with negative. 
  • Keywords: The most common words and phrases found in tweets about each film.
  • Influencers: The twitter handles with the largest followings participating in each conversation

No one metric could possibly determine the winner alone, but perhaps looking at each conversation from four different angles could help us determine a winner. Check out the results below.

Do you agree with our conclusion? Let us know in the comments. And be sure to watch the Academy Awards this Sunday night to find out if we got it right.